5G: A new future for Mobile Network Operators, or not?: 5G Broadband Internet Mobile Wireless Networks

For Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), 5G represents the fifth generation of cellular-based networking technology. From that perspective, it is reasonable to ask whether the transition to 5G is just the next step in the evolution of cellular-based mobile services along a well-trodden path since the first generation was deployed in the 1980s. That is a path of continuous innovation leading to ever more capable mobile services, ubiquitous adoption, and exponential traffic growth. Along this evolutionary path, MNOs have morphed from providers of an adjunct service (i.e., mobile telephony for use along highways) to the principal providers of mobile broadband. That path has been punctuated at decade intervals by the transition to successive generations of standards-based cellular technologies. Concurrent with mobile broadband’s growing importance as an essential service needed by virtually everyone everywhere, MNO
industry concentration has increased, driven by well-understood economic forces that include increasing capital intensity, scale and scope economies, network effects, access to scarce resources, and regulatory policy.1 Today, most markets are served by three to four MNOs, with HHIs that exceed 2500 in most developed nations (see Fig. 1).
While the first large-scale deployments of 5G commercial services began to roll out in late 2019, the global expansion and transition to 4G LTE continues.2 Although a strong case can be made that 5G will continue the orderly evolution of cellular services, there are