Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.
The Calm Before the Storm: Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versa
Publication Date: January 16, 2015
Publisher: Foreign Affairs
Format: Audiobook
Authors: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Gregory F. Treverton